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You should be so lucky

Posted on December 10, 2008January 18, 2025 by admin
I’m lucky. I’m not going to lose my job. I’m not skint. I’m not in debt.

Let me explain. OH is a Libertarian which means no fucker tells me what to do. I’ve had more jobs than Tommy Doherty and been fired from most of them because I tell the boss when he’s a cunt that he’s a cunt. So OH now works for himself. Not luck. I take the risk that if I don’t do my job properly, I’ll starve.

My job involves speaking another language. I wasn’t born that way, I learned other languages. The hard way. I went and lived there. I made awful mistakes, embarrassed myself a million times and now speak three European languages fluently. So I can talk to clients who don’t speak English and more importantly, do business with them.

I’m not skint because I invoice in Euros. I won’t deal with UK companies because they don’t pay me on time, try to reduce my margins at every turn and threaten to use someone else every week. Fuck them. Learn some manners, you cunts.

I’m not in debt because I pay my bills. End of.

I’ve actually taken to extending credit terms to my customers from 30 days to 90 days because I’m making money on the pound plummeting . Seriously. By the time the invoice gets paid, I see a real increase in the money that arrives.

Here’s a bit of fun. Ask your HR department to pay you in Euros, not pounds. Tell them you prefer to be paid in Euros because the pound, like the Zimbabwean Dollar is in free fall. They must have a Euro account somewhere, so pay me from that. The same amount every month. Thank you. If they say no, your job is under threat anyway. If they say yes, you know you add value to your company, so ask for a pay rise.

Most of my customers are in Germany. They pay the bill, don’t haggle, accept my service with a smile and are grateful. They understand business. They understand that my cost is a long term investment and I understand that I need to deliver for years to come. They’re happy and I’m happy.

Germany took on a bankrupt country 18 years ago. They borrowed heavily to bring it up to their exacting standards and now East Germany is as productive as West Germany. People are no longer paid to sit on their arses all day and no one has a job for life. I don’t think any other country in the EU could have done it. The Germans did. So when they turn to Gordon and tell him he’s a complete cunt, I’m listening. And today, they did.

You cannot spend your way out of debt. CHRIST, this is so fundamental, it amazes me to say it. So I’ll do it again. You cannot spend your way out of debt.

Ah, that’s better

Now, if you think we can, I need to point you to this

Michael Saunders from CitiGroup has calculated ‘external debt’ – ie, what Britain owes the rest of the world. It is not 40% but 400% of GDP, the highest in the G7 by some margin. The next down, France, is 176%. America, flagellating itself for blowing such a debt bubble, is just 100%. Japan is about half America. The below graph shows ‘external debt’ – both in mid-2008, and five years ago.

 

Narrow it down to short-term debt, ie IOUs that have to be paid back within a year, and the picture grows even bleaker. It adds up to 300% of GDP – six times that of France whose loans are long-term. Saunders says, with some understatement, that this makes “the UK economy and financial system highly vulnerable when, as now, global banking and capital flows dries up.”

 

Here is the picture, narrowed down to short- term debt (ie, due by next Christmas).

I believe that an IMF bailout is highly unlikely. But the highly unlikely has been happening rather a lot lately. There is a fairly clear apocalypse scenario emerging: that Britain becomes reliant on new borrowing, that the Arabs/Chinese get sick of buying IOU notes in devaluing sterling, and refuse to buy more debt at anything other than loan shark rates. Then Britain has to go to the IMF. For a country with as much short-term debt requirements as Britain, there is nothing fantastical about this.

 

Financing Britain is an issue. Our creditors will be looking at Britain with its 400% debt/GDP ratio and ask how this island country with its mammoth trade deficit is going to pay the money back, especially if its Prime Minister prescribes more debt as the solution.

 

But this crisis has taught us to pay heed to the highly unlikely, to watch out for the Black Swans. It could come in the form of UK banks being unable to raise capital from the markets, from liquidity issues in UK gilts, whatever.

 

The UK is fucked. Beyond fucked. Beyond Iceland fucked.

 

Except I’m not…..but you lot are. DO SOMETHING.

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